July 1st Post July 2, 2008
A client asked this great question in response to the June Chairman’s Communiqué, and kindly allowed me to answer it here. I think you will find it most interesting.
Q. Some feel that the continuing rise in the cost of oil will fuel (a little pun there) a deeper than expected recession and it will hit next year. Indeed, it appears that the market is currently in the process of discounting for that possibility. With that in the picture and all the uncertainty of a potential major shift in world economies, markets, and lifestyles brought on by high energy costs …
Chairman Communique - June 2008 June 19, 2008
As predicted in our May Chairman’s Communiqué, the markets have gotten hammered as spring turned to hot summer, and I expect this instability to linger just a bit longer as recession and credit-crunch fears feed into the typical summer trading patterns. That said, I think we are near bottom, and heartily encourage buying at these levels. Tim asks that I emphasize that such buying should be directed at super-diversified portfolios like Camarda’s ISIS®, since making concentrated bets in specific sectors – like banking and finance, to name an obvious peril – could prove disastrous. I still look for a meaningful …
Estate Angst Looms
Now that Tax Day has past, it’s time to start beating the drum on estate planning again, especially since the tax “repeal” is set to not only expire in just a few years, but actually turn into a tax increase. Too many of you may not be aware enough of these changes to protect yourselves.
Early in this decade, prospects for estate tax repeal were so bright that many investors took it for granted and never noticed it was set to expire in 2011, just two and one-half years from now.
Three very bad things are set to happen, beginning in …
Sportbook: The View from the ISIS® Corner June 1, 2008
“Value vs. Growth” would be the perennial investment bloodsport, but for the absence of the colorful play-by-play announcers, Johnny Gomez and Nick Diamond (referencing here the animated TV series, “Celebrity Deathmatch”). The legendary Mills Lane would even preside over the fight because there is certainly enough domination to warrant a referee!
Since the beginning of 2000, value stocks have trounced growth stocks by more than 100% overall, (over 10% per year, on average). Specifically, Large Cap Value returned more than 50%, while Large Cap Growth LOST 30%; Mid Cap Value returned 130%, while Mid Cap Growth was flat; and lastly, Small …
Chairman Communique - May 2008 May 13, 2008
After running up strongly (nearly 1000 points on the Dow) since our “Buy, Buy, Buy!” forecast of last month, the markets backed off considerably last week. We expect this instability to continue, along with significant price deterioration in the near term. These dips should make opportune times to buy, however, and our expectation of a banner year before 2009 comes calling remains undiminished. As always, if you have any questions or would like to take advantage of the markets’ “sale,” call your advisor at (904) 278-1177.
May Post May 1, 2008
Recently, we were asked by Worth Magazine to answer some questions for consideration in their “Top 100” list of financial advisors, and I thought the information would be of some interest to you.
“Please list – in order of importance – no more than three specialty areas you yourself practice within financial planning (examples: retirement planning, trust planning, planning for women, etc.):”
risk-controlled investment planning and portfolio management, tax control planning, asset protection planning.
“Please list any professional designations and leadership positions you hold within the financial planning and/or investment management industry, as well as any books or papers you …
Chairman Communique - April 2008 April 12, 2008
This month’s message is a simple one…BUY, BUY, BUY! We believe that stocks are cheap and poised for a tremendous, long-term rally. Not for nothing has Warren Buffett said that this is the first time in years he’s seen significant opportunity in the markets. But since I’m tired from writing other things all day, I’ll let these graphs do the talking: This first one is the S&P thus far in 2008 – we are still down for the year but well off the lows in January and March. I think we are very close to a bottom, with the certainty of …
Timothy Schick, Director of Portfolio Management: April Post April 1, 2008
At present, there’s decidedly negative sentiment priced into the markets, and no shortage of skepticism about its prospects. The S&P 500 is trading at two-year lows, and more importantly, at a P/E multiple (on trailing earnings) that’s as low as it’s been in more than a decade. Indeed, the trailing P/E has been on a continuous downslide since the late 1990s, notwithstanding the brief surge from 2001 to 2002, when we were last officially in bear market territory:
Everything else being equal, trailing P/E ratios will increase after a bear market has gotten long in the tooth. To understand this, …
April Post
On a personal note, Kim and I would like to thank all of you who’ve reached out with your congratulations on the birth of our son Dante, and your prayers for Kim’s speedy recovery. She has begun treatment for Hodgkin’s at the Mayo Clinic, and virtually every medical professional has assured us her quick cure is nearly certain. Things look very good, and I’ll keep you posted.
Investment-wise, U.S. economic conditions continue to deteriorate, and I am close to drawing the conclusion Tim came to months ago – we are in recession, albeit a weird one where many non-housing/construction-related industries remain …
Chairman Communique - March 2008 March 12, 2008
We got a very nice market pop yesterday on Chairman Ben’s innovative liquidity injection, which seems to be holding at least through the middle of today’s trading day. While I ultimately expect the economy to be saved and the stock market to soar – and I am still expecting that this year – I predict yet a few more nasty bumps before the instability is over. If you have the means and the stomach to buy*, the next downdraft – and I expect it in a matter of days – should prove an excellent opportunity. The short term forecast is …
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